Sunday 11 October · 16:45 · 8th matchday
Excelsior – FC Groningen
Excelsior
7th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.27
FC Groningen
8th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Excelsior favourites for Excelsior – FC Groningen, at 42%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:45.
Across the full score distribution, Excelsior win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and FC Groningen win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.55 goals for Excelsior and 1.29 for FC Groningen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.55 for Excelsior, 1.29 for FC Groningen.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Excelsior wins; above it, FC Groningen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Excelsior goals in rows, FC Groningen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Excelsior v FC Groningen?
Excelsior, at 42%. The full split is Excelsior 42%, draw 27%, FC Groningen 31%.
What is the most likely score in Excelsior v FC Groningen?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Excelsior v FC Groningen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.55 for Excelsior and 1.29 for FC Groningen.
Will both teams score in Excelsior v FC Groningen?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Excelsior keep a clean sheet or FC Groningen fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.