Sunday 18 October · 16:45 · 9th matchday
FC Groningen – Ajax
FC Groningen
8th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.19
Ajax
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 0.95
Our model makes Ajax favourites for FC Groningen – Ajax, at 49%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 16:45.
Across the full score distribution, FC Groningen win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Ajax win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.19 goals for FC Groningen and 1.76 for Ajax, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.19 for FC Groningen, 1.76 for Ajax.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Groningen wins; above it, Ajax wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Groningen goals in rows, Ajax goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Groningen v Ajax?
Ajax, at 49%. The full split is FC Groningen 25%, draw 26%, Ajax 49%.
What is the most likely score in FC Groningen v Ajax?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Groningen v Ajax?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.19 for FC Groningen and 1.76 for Ajax.
Will both teams score in FC Groningen v Ajax?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. FC Groningen keep a clean sheet or Ajax fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.