Sunday 18 October · 20:00 · 9th matchday
FC Twente – FC Utrecht
FC Twente
4th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.96
FC Utrecht
15th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.22
Our model makes FC Twente favourites for FC Twente – FC Utrecht, at 55%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 20:00.
Across the full score distribution, FC Twente win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and FC Utrecht win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.94 goals for FC Twente and 1.15 for FC Utrecht, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.94 for FC Twente, 1.15 for FC Utrecht.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Twente wins; above it, FC Utrecht wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
FC Twente goals in rows, FC Utrecht goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Twente v FC Utrecht?
FC Twente, at 55%. The full split is FC Twente 55%, draw 24%, FC Utrecht 21%.
What is the most likely score in FC Twente v FC Utrecht?
1–1, which comes up in 11.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Twente v FC Utrecht?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.94 for FC Twente and 1.15 for FC Utrecht.
Will both teams score in FC Twente v FC Utrecht?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. FC Twente keep a clean sheet or FC Utrecht fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.