Sunday 11 October · 12:15 · 8th matchday
FC Utrecht – Willem II
FC Utrecht
15th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.22
Willem II
18th · attack 0.70 · defence 1.58
Our model makes FC Utrecht favourites for FC Utrecht – Willem II, at 70%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 12:15.
Across the full score distribution, FC Utrecht win 70% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Willem II win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.32 goals for FC Utrecht and 0.85 for Willem II, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.32 for FC Utrecht, 0.85 for Willem II.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Utrecht wins; above it, Willem II wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
FC Utrecht goals in rows, Willem II goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Utrecht v Willem II?
FC Utrecht, at 70%. The full split is FC Utrecht 70%, draw 19%, Willem II 11%.
What is the most likely score in FC Utrecht v Willem II?
2–0, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Utrecht v Willem II?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 2.32 for FC Utrecht and 0.85 for Willem II.
Will both teams score in FC Utrecht v Willem II?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. FC Utrecht keep a clean sheet or Willem II fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.