Saturday 10 October · 18:45 · 8th matchday
Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
2nd · attack 1.64 · defence 0.91
AZ Alkmaar
1st · attack 1.32 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Feyenoord favourites for Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar, at 56%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Feyenoord win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and AZ Alkmaar win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.04 goals for Feyenoord and 1.21 for AZ Alkmaar, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.04 for Feyenoord, 1.21 for AZ Alkmaar.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Feyenoord wins; above it, AZ Alkmaar wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Feyenoord goals in rows, AZ Alkmaar goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar?
Feyenoord, at 56%. The full split is Feyenoord 56%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar 21%.
What is the most likely score in Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar?
1–1, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.04 for Feyenoord and 1.21 for AZ Alkmaar.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Feyenoord keep a clean sheet or AZ Alkmaar fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.