Saturday 10 October · 20:00 · 8th matchday
Fortuna Sittard – FC Twente
Fortuna Sittard
6th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.37
FC Twente
4th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.96
Our model makes FC Twente favourites for Fortuna Sittard – FC Twente, at 51%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 20:00.
Across the full score distribution, Fortuna Sittard win 23% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and FC Twente win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.14 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.78 for FC Twente, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.14 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.78 for FC Twente.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fortuna Sittard wins; above it, FC Twente wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fortuna Sittard goals in rows, FC Twente goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente?
FC Twente, at 51%. The full split is Fortuna Sittard 23%, draw 26%, FC Twente 51%.
What is the most likely score in Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.14 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.78 for FC Twente.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet or FC Twente fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.