Saturday 10 October · 16:30 · 8th matchday
Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam
Go Ahead Eagles
9th · attack 1.18 · defence 1.25
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.28
Our model makes Go Ahead Eagles favourites for Go Ahead Eagles – Sparta Rotterdam, at 53%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Go Ahead Eagles win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Sparta Rotterdam win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.86 goals for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.15 for Sparta Rotterdam, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.86 for Go Ahead Eagles, 1.15 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Go Ahead Eagles wins; above it, Sparta Rotterdam wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Go Ahead Eagles goals in rows, Sparta Rotterdam goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam?
Go Ahead Eagles, at 53%. The full split is Go Ahead Eagles 53%, draw 25%, Sparta Rotterdam 22%.
What is the most likely score in Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.86 for Go Ahead Eagles and 1.15 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Will both teams score in Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Go Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet or Sparta Rotterdam fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.