Sunday 18 October · 20:00 · 9th matchday
NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
11th · attack 1.32 · defence 1.22
Fortuna Sittard
6th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.37
Our model makes NEC Nijmegen favourites for NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard, at 60%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 20:00.
Across the full score distribution, NEC Nijmegen win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Fortuna Sittard win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.23 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.18 for Fortuna Sittard, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.23 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.18 for Fortuna Sittard.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, NEC Nijmegen wins; above it, Fortuna Sittard wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
NEC Nijmegen goals in rows, Fortuna Sittard goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard?
NEC Nijmegen, at 60%. The full split is NEC Nijmegen 60%, draw 21%, Fortuna Sittard 18%.
What is the most likely score in NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.23 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.18 for Fortuna Sittard.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. NEC Nijmegen keep a clean sheet or Fortuna Sittard fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.