Sunday 18 October · 12:15 · 9th matchday
PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.54
Go Ahead Eagles
9th · attack 1.18 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Go Ahead Eagles favourites for PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead Eagles, at 47%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 12:15.
Across the full score distribution, PEC Zwolle win 28% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Go Ahead Eagles win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.39 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.82 for Go Ahead Eagles, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.39 for PEC Zwolle, 1.82 for Go Ahead Eagles.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, PEC Zwolle wins; above it, Go Ahead Eagles wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
PEC Zwolle goals in rows, Go Ahead Eagles goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles?
Go Ahead Eagles, at 47%. The full split is PEC Zwolle 28%, draw 25%, Go Ahead Eagles 47%.
What is the most likely score in PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.39 for PEC Zwolle and 1.82 for Go Ahead Eagles.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet or Go Ahead Eagles fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.