Sunday 11 October · 14:30 · 8th matchday
PEC Zwolle – SC Cambuur
PEC Zwolle
16th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.54
SC Cambuur
14th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.84
Our model makes PEC Zwolle favourites for PEC Zwolle – SC Cambuur, at 51%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, PEC Zwolle win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and SC Cambuur win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.04 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.44 for SC Cambuur, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.04 for PEC Zwolle, 1.44 for SC Cambuur.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, PEC Zwolle wins; above it, SC Cambuur wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
PEC Zwolle goals in rows, SC Cambuur goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur?
PEC Zwolle, at 51%. The full split is PEC Zwolle 51%, draw 23%, SC Cambuur 26%.
What is the most likely score in PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur?
1–1, which comes up in 10.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 2.04 for PEC Zwolle and 1.44 for SC Cambuur.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle v SC Cambuur?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet or SC Cambuur fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.