Sunday 18 October · 14:30 · 9th matchday
SC Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar
SC Cambuur
14th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.84
AZ Alkmaar
1st · attack 1.32 · defence 1.01
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar favourites for SC Cambuur – AZ Alkmaar, at 65%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, SC Cambuur win 16% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and AZ Alkmaar win 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.16 goals for SC Cambuur and 2.43 for AZ Alkmaar, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.16 for SC Cambuur, 2.43 for AZ Alkmaar.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SC Cambuur wins; above it, AZ Alkmaar wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
SC Cambuur goals in rows, AZ Alkmaar goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar, at 65%. The full split is SC Cambuur 16%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 65%.
What is the most likely score in SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar?
1–2, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 1.16 for SC Cambuur and 2.43 for AZ Alkmaar.
Will both teams score in SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. SC Cambuur keep a clean sheet or AZ Alkmaar fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.