Friday 16 October · 20:00 · 9th matchday
SC Heerenveen – Excelsior
SC Heerenveen
10th · attack 1.10 · defence 1.27
Excelsior
7th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.27
Our model makes SC Heerenveen favourites for SC Heerenveen – Excelsior, at 45%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 20:00.
Across the full score distribution, SC Heerenveen win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Excelsior win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.71 goals for SC Heerenveen and 1.35 for Excelsior, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.71 for SC Heerenveen, 1.35 for Excelsior.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SC Heerenveen wins; above it, Excelsior wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
SC Heerenveen goals in rows, Excelsior goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SC Heerenveen v Excelsior?
SC Heerenveen, at 45%. The full split is SC Heerenveen 45%, draw 26%, Excelsior 29%.
What is the most likely score in SC Heerenveen v Excelsior?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Heerenveen v Excelsior?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.71 for SC Heerenveen and 1.35 for Excelsior.
Will both teams score in SC Heerenveen v Excelsior?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. SC Heerenveen keep a clean sheet or Excelsior fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.