Saturday 17 October · 21:00 · 9th matchday
Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.28
Willem II
18th · attack 0.70 · defence 1.58
Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam favourites for Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II, at 57%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sparta Rotterdam win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Willem II win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.79 goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.89 for Willem II, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.79 for Sparta Rotterdam, 0.89 for Willem II.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sparta Rotterdam wins; above it, Willem II wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Sparta Rotterdam goals in rows, Willem II goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II?
Sparta Rotterdam, at 57%. The full split is Sparta Rotterdam 57%, draw 25%, Willem II 17%.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.79 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.89 for Willem II.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sparta Rotterdam keep a clean sheet or Willem II fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.