Sunday 11 October · 14:30 · 8th matchday
Telstar – ADO Den Haag
Telstar
13th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.23
ADO Den Haag
17th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.65
Our model makes Telstar favourites for Telstar – ADO Den Haag, at 59%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, Telstar win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and ADO Den Haag win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.92 goals for Telstar and 0.94 for ADO Den Haag, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.92 for Telstar, 0.94 for ADO Den Haag.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Telstar wins; above it, ADO Den Haag wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Telstar goals in rows, ADO Den Haag goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Telstar v ADO Den Haag?
Telstar, at 59%. The full split is Telstar 59%, draw 24%, ADO Den Haag 17%.
What is the most likely score in Telstar v ADO Den Haag?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Telstar v ADO Den Haag?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.92 for Telstar and 0.94 for ADO Den Haag.
Will both teams score in Telstar v ADO Den Haag?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Telstar keep a clean sheet or ADO Den Haag fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.