Saturday 17 October · 20:00 · 9th matchday
Telstar – Feyenoord
Telstar
13th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.23
Feyenoord
2nd · attack 1.64 · defence 0.91
Our model makes Feyenoord favourites for Telstar – Feyenoord, at 59%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 20:00.
Across the full score distribution, Telstar win 18% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Feyenoord win 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.06 goals for Telstar and 2.02 for Feyenoord, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.06 for Telstar, 2.02 for Feyenoord.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Telstar wins; above it, Feyenoord wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Telstar goals in rows, Feyenoord goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Telstar v Feyenoord?
Feyenoord, at 59%. The full split is Telstar 18%, draw 23%, Feyenoord 59%.
What is the most likely score in Telstar v Feyenoord?
1–1, which comes up in 10.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Telstar v Feyenoord?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.06 for Telstar and 2.02 for Feyenoord.
Will both teams score in Telstar v Feyenoord?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Telstar keep a clean sheet or Feyenoord fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.