Sunday 11 October · 18:00 · 7th matchday
Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor
Beşiktaş
3rd · attack 1.38 · defence 0.88
Kocaelispor
4th · attack 0.72 · defence 0.75
Our model makes Beşiktaş favourites for Beşiktaş – Kocaelispor, at 57%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Beşiktaş win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Kocaelispor win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 17.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Beşiktaş and 0.63 for Kocaelispor, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time and both teams scoring 36%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Beşiktaş, 0.63 for Kocaelispor.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Beşiktaş wins; above it, Kocaelispor wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Beşiktaş goals in rows, Kocaelispor goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor?
Beşiktaş, at 57%. The full split is Beşiktaş 57%, draw 27%, Kocaelispor 16%.
What is the most likely score in Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor?
1–0, which comes up in 17.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Beşiktaş and 0.63 for Kocaelispor.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor?
Both teams score in 36% of simulations. Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet or Kocaelispor fail to score in the remaining 64%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.