Friday 16 October · 19:00 · 8th matchday
Çorum FK – Rizespor
Çorum FK
11th · attack 1.46 · defence 1.41
Rizespor
9th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.11
Our model makes Çorum FK favourites for Çorum FK – Rizespor, at 56%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Çorum FK win 56% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Rizespor win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.28 goals for Çorum FK and 1.47 for Rizespor, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 72% of the time and both teams scoring 69%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.28 for Çorum FK, 1.47 for Rizespor.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Çorum FK wins; above it, Rizespor wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 |
Çorum FK goals in rows, Rizespor goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Çorum FK v Rizespor?
Çorum FK, at 56%. The full split is Çorum FK 56%, draw 20%, Rizespor 24%.
What is the most likely score in Çorum FK v Rizespor?
2–1, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Çorum FK v Rizespor?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 72% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 89% of the time. Expected goals are 2.28 for Çorum FK and 1.47 for Rizespor.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK v Rizespor?
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. Çorum FK keep a clean sheet or Rizespor fail to score in the remaining 31%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.