Sunday 11 October · 15:00 · 7th matchday
Gaziantep F.K. – Çorum FK
Gaziantep F.K.
10th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.16
Çorum FK
11th · attack 1.46 · defence 1.41
Our model makes Gaziantep F.K. favourites for Gaziantep F.K. – Çorum FK, at 42%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Gaziantep F.K. win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Çorum FK win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.86 goals for Gaziantep F.K. and 1.69 for Çorum FK, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 69%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.86 for Gaziantep F.K., 1.69 for Çorum FK.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Gaziantep F.K. wins; above it, Çorum FK wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Gaziantep F.K. goals in rows, Çorum FK goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Gaziantep F.K. v Çorum FK?
Gaziantep F.K., at 42%. The full split is Gaziantep F.K. 42%, draw 23%, Çorum FK 35%.
What is the most likely score in Gaziantep F.K. v Çorum FK?
1–1, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gaziantep F.K. v Çorum FK?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 1.86 for Gaziantep F.K. and 1.69 for Çorum FK.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep F.K. v Çorum FK?
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. Gaziantep F.K. keep a clean sheet or Çorum FK fail to score in the remaining 31%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.