Saturday 10 October · 12:30 · 7th matchday
Gençlerbirliği – Amed SK
Gençlerbirliği
13th · attack 0.80 · defence 1.23
Amed SK
1st · attack 1.74 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Amed SK favourites for Gençlerbirliği – Amed SK, at 58%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 12:30.
Across the full score distribution, Gençlerbirliği win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Amed SK win 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for Gençlerbirliği and 2.14 for Amed SK, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.21 for Gençlerbirliği, 2.14 for Amed SK.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Gençlerbirliği wins; above it, Amed SK wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Gençlerbirliği goals in rows, Amed SK goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Gençlerbirliği v Amed SK?
Amed SK, at 58%. The full split is Gençlerbirliği 21%, draw 21%, Amed SK 58%.
What is the most likely score in Gençlerbirliği v Amed SK?
1–2, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gençlerbirliği v Amed SK?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for Gençlerbirliği and 2.14 for Amed SK.
Will both teams score in Gençlerbirliği v Amed SK?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Gençlerbirliği keep a clean sheet or Amed SK fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.