Sunday 11 October · 12:30 · 7th matchday
Konyaspor – İstanbul Başakşehir
Konyaspor
15th · attack 0.86 · defence 1.07
İstanbul Başakşehir
12th · attack 1.32 · defence 1.03
Our model makes İstanbul Başakşehir favourites for Konyaspor – İstanbul Başakşehir, at 40%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 12:30.
Across the full score distribution, Konyaspor win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and İstanbul Başakşehir win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.26 goals for Konyaspor and 1.41 for İstanbul Başakşehir, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.26 for Konyaspor, 1.41 for İstanbul Başakşehir.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Konyaspor wins; above it, İstanbul Başakşehir wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Konyaspor goals in rows, İstanbul Başakşehir goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Konyaspor v İstanbul Başakşehir?
İstanbul Başakşehir, at 40%. The full split is Konyaspor 33%, draw 27%, İstanbul Başakşehir 40%.
What is the most likely score in Konyaspor v İstanbul Başakşehir?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Konyaspor v İstanbul Başakşehir?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.26 for Konyaspor and 1.41 for İstanbul Başakşehir.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor v İstanbul Başakşehir?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Konyaspor keep a clean sheet or İstanbul Başakşehir fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.