Saturday 10 October · 18:00 · 7th matchday
Rizespor – Fenerbahçe
Rizespor
9th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.11
Fenerbahçe
6th · attack 1.75 · defence 0.96
Our model makes Fenerbahçe favourites for Rizespor – Fenerbahçe, at 50%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Rizespor win 28% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Fenerbahçe win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.41 goals for Rizespor and 1.94 for Fenerbahçe, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.41 for Rizespor, 1.94 for Fenerbahçe.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rizespor wins; above it, Fenerbahçe wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rizespor goals in rows, Fenerbahçe goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rizespor v Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe, at 50%. The full split is Rizespor 28%, draw 23%, Fenerbahçe 50%.
What is the most likely score in Rizespor v Fenerbahçe?
1–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rizespor v Fenerbahçe?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 1.41 for Rizespor and 1.94 for Fenerbahçe.
Will both teams score in Rizespor v Fenerbahçe?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. Rizespor keep a clean sheet or Fenerbahçe fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.