Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 7th matchday
Samsunspor – Trabzonspor
Samsunspor
16th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.23
Trabzonspor
7th · attack 1.38 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Trabzonspor favourites for Samsunspor – Trabzonspor, at 50%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Samsunspor win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Trabzonspor win 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.16 goals for Samsunspor and 1.70 for Trabzonspor, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.16 for Samsunspor, 1.70 for Trabzonspor.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Samsunspor wins; above it, Trabzonspor wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Samsunspor goals in rows, Trabzonspor goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Samsunspor v Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor, at 50%. The full split is Samsunspor 26%, draw 25%, Trabzonspor 50%.
What is the most likely score in Samsunspor v Trabzonspor?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Samsunspor v Trabzonspor?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.16 for Samsunspor and 1.70 for Trabzonspor.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor v Trabzonspor?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Samsunspor keep a clean sheet or Trabzonspor fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.