Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 23rd matchday
AIK – Brommapojkarna
AIK
8th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.08
Brommapojkarna
11th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.32
Our model makes AIK favourites for AIK – Brommapojkarna, at 50%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, AIK win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Brommapojkarna win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.73 goals for AIK and 1.16 for Brommapojkarna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.73 for AIK, 1.16 for Brommapojkarna.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AIK wins; above it, Brommapojkarna wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
AIK goals in rows, Brommapojkarna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AIK v Brommapojkarna?
AIK, at 50%. The full split is AIK 50%, draw 24%, Brommapojkarna 25%.
What is the most likely score in AIK v Brommapojkarna?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AIK v Brommapojkarna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.73 for AIK and 1.16 for Brommapojkarna.
Will both teams score in AIK v Brommapojkarna?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. AIK keep a clean sheet or Brommapojkarna fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.