Friday 16 October · 19:00 · 24th matchday
Brommapojkarna – Djurgården
Brommapojkarna
11th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.32
Djurgården
3rd · attack 1.43 · defence 0.87
Our model makes Djurgården favourites for Brommapojkarna – Djurgården, at 55%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Brommapojkarna win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Djurgården win 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.12 goals for Brommapojkarna and 1.89 for Djurgården, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.12 for Brommapojkarna, 1.89 for Djurgården.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brommapojkarna wins; above it, Djurgården wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Brommapojkarna goals in rows, Djurgården goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brommapojkarna v Djurgården?
Djurgården, at 55%. The full split is Brommapojkarna 22%, draw 23%, Djurgården 55%.
What is the most likely score in Brommapojkarna v Djurgården?
1–1, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brommapojkarna v Djurgården?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.12 for Brommapojkarna and 1.89 for Djurgården.
Will both teams score in Brommapojkarna v Djurgården?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Brommapojkarna keep a clean sheet or Djurgården fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.