Monday 12 October · 19:00 · 23rd matchday
Elfsborg – Halmstad
Elfsborg
4th · attack 1.19 · defence 1.06
Halmstad
16th · attack 0.66 · defence 1.33
Our model makes Elfsborg favourites for Elfsborg – Halmstad, at 65%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Elfsborg win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Halmstad win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.89 goals for Elfsborg and 0.71 for Halmstad, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.89 for Elfsborg, 0.71 for Halmstad.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elfsborg wins; above it, Halmstad wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Elfsborg goals in rows, Halmstad goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elfsborg v Halmstad?
Elfsborg, at 65%. The full split is Elfsborg 65%, draw 22%, Halmstad 13%.
What is the most likely score in Elfsborg v Halmstad?
1–0, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elfsborg v Halmstad?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.89 for Elfsborg and 0.71 for Halmstad.
Will both teams score in Elfsborg v Halmstad?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Elfsborg keep a clean sheet or Halmstad fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.