Saturday 10 October · 15:00 · 23rd matchday
GAIS – Sirius
GAIS
10th · attack 1.05 · defence 0.79
Sirius
1st · attack 1.49 · defence 1.22
Our model makes GAIS favourites for GAIS – Sirius, at 45%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, GAIS win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Sirius win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for GAIS and 1.19 for Sirius, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.54 for GAIS, 1.19 for Sirius.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, GAIS wins; above it, Sirius wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
GAIS goals in rows, Sirius goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in GAIS v Sirius?
GAIS, at 45%. The full split is GAIS 45%, draw 26%, Sirius 29%.
What is the most likely score in GAIS v Sirius?
1–1, which comes up in 12.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in GAIS v Sirius?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for GAIS and 1.19 for Sirius.
Will both teams score in GAIS v Sirius?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. GAIS keep a clean sheet or Sirius fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.