Sunday 11 October · 16:30 · 23rd matchday
Häcken – Örgryte
Häcken
5th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.21
Örgryte
15th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.69
Our model makes Häcken favourites for Häcken – Örgryte, at 71%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Häcken win 71% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Örgryte win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.72 goals for Häcken and 1.12 for Örgryte, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.72 for Häcken, 1.12 for Örgryte.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Häcken wins; above it, Örgryte wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Häcken goals in rows, Örgryte goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Häcken v Örgryte?
Häcken, at 71%. The full split is Häcken 71%, draw 16%, Örgryte 13%.
What is the most likely score in Häcken v Örgryte?
2–1, which comes up in 8.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Häcken v Örgryte?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.72 for Häcken and 1.12 for Örgryte.
Will both teams score in Häcken v Örgryte?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Häcken keep a clean sheet or Örgryte fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.