Sunday 11 October · 14:00 · 23rd matchday
Hammarby – Djurgården
Hammarby
2nd · attack 1.50 · defence 0.82
Djurgården
3rd · attack 1.43 · defence 0.87
Our model makes Hammarby favourites for Hammarby – Djurgården, at 46%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Hammarby win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Djurgården win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.57 goals for Hammarby and 1.17 for Djurgården, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.57 for Hammarby, 1.17 for Djurgården.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hammarby wins; above it, Djurgården wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Hammarby goals in rows, Djurgården goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hammarby v Djurgården?
Hammarby, at 46%. The full split is Hammarby 46%, draw 26%, Djurgården 28%.
What is the most likely score in Hammarby v Djurgården?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hammarby v Djurgården?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.57 for Hammarby and 1.17 for Djurgården.
Will both teams score in Hammarby v Djurgården?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Hammarby keep a clean sheet or Djurgården fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.