Monday 12 October · 19:00 · 23rd matchday
Malmö FF – Kalmar
Malmö FF
7th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.00
Kalmar
13th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.28
Our model makes Malmö FF favourites for Malmö FF – Kalmar, at 65%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Malmö FF win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Kalmar win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.04 goals for Malmö FF and 0.85 for Kalmar, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.04 for Malmö FF, 0.85 for Kalmar.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Malmö FF wins; above it, Kalmar wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Malmö FF goals in rows, Kalmar goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Malmö FF v Kalmar?
Malmö FF, at 65%. The full split is Malmö FF 65%, draw 21%, Kalmar 14%.
What is the most likely score in Malmö FF v Kalmar?
2–0, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Malmö FF v Kalmar?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 2.04 for Malmö FF and 0.85 for Kalmar.
Will both teams score in Malmö FF v Kalmar?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Malmö FF keep a clean sheet or Kalmar fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.