Saturday 10 October · 17:30 · 23rd matchday
Mjällby – Degerfors
Mjällby
12th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.00
Degerfors
14th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.29
Our model makes Mjällby favourites for Mjällby – Degerfors, at 60%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Mjällby win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Degerfors win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.73 goals for Mjällby and 0.77 for Degerfors, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.73 for Mjällby, 0.77 for Degerfors.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Mjällby wins; above it, Degerfors wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Mjällby goals in rows, Degerfors goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Mjällby v Degerfors?
Mjällby, at 60%. The full split is Mjällby 60%, draw 24%, Degerfors 16%.
What is the most likely score in Mjällby v Degerfors?
1–0, which comes up in 13.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mjällby v Degerfors?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.73 for Mjällby and 0.77 for Degerfors.
Will both teams score in Mjällby v Degerfors?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Mjällby keep a clean sheet or Degerfors fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.